The USDOE and USDOT should support research that quantifies, through
statistical analysis of economic data, the impact of telecommunications
spending on transportation consumption per unit of economic output. This
research should be designed to verify whether the relationship is one of net
substitution of telecommunications for transportation or net stimulation. Given
the prevalent conventional wisdom that telecommunications is a substitute for
travel, and given the Federal government's interest in promoting the National
Information Infrastructure while reducing peak-period vehicle trips in many
urban areas, this is a critically important determination to make.
The effects of increasing technological maturity and falling prices for greater
capability should be incorporated into the research. Also, the relative energy
intensity of the production and consumption of telecommunications services
should be compared to the energy intensity of the production and consumption of
transportation services. Input-output tables of the US economy permit
measurement of the total consumption of both telecommunications and
transportation.
The research could test whether reduction in energy consumption from the
substitution of telecommunications for transportation is more evident in
sectors facing a more competitive market structure than in sectors, like
government and public education, that are less subject to such forces.
This research should use the same kind of national econometric models used in
earlier research that determined that telecommunications spending causes
economic growth and productivity improvement (Cronin, 1991). Use of such models
provides a basis for estimating the effects of future policy choices, such as
changes in the method of paying for transportation services and the effect of
higher gasoline taxes. A later focus of this research should include
international comparisons.
The USDOE should take action to initiate demonstration projects by state
government planning agencies and metropolitan planning organizations that
provide a transfer of proven energy planning techniques to the transportation
sector. The need is to translate energy planning techniques into an integrated
resource planning methodology applicable to metropolitan area surface
transportation. The telecommunications applications to be considered in the IRP
process should include both the private-sector teleprocesses that influence
transportation demand and the government applications of telecommunications
that the new transportation IRP could influence directly. Under DOE leadership,
the overall goal of the IRP demonstration projects could include increasing the
energy efficiency of regional economies. The IRP projects should encompass a
wide range of actions (including promotion of telecommuting) to manage
transportation demand as well as actions to improve the performance of
transportation systems. Telecommunications is pertinent to both of these kinds
of action.
The USDOE-supported methodology should include consideration of the
telecommunications potential for increasing as well as reducing trips and for
influencing travelers to choose high-occupancy or single-occupancy vehicular
transportation modes. Demand for the transport of goods and services as well as
passengers should be analyzed. Passenger transportation should include trips
other than commuting trips.
Planning and implementation of transportation are local and state government
responsibilities, but the federal government has a role in developing tools,
disseminating them, and encouraging their use. The USDOE demonstration projects
should include a requirement for reporting results and lessons learned for the
use of policy makers in Washington, DC, state capitols, city halls, and county
administrations. The goal of this feedback should be to inform the budget
authorization and appropriation processes about the fiscal, regulatory, and
institutional barriers at the local and state levels that impede implementation
of IRP.
Federal data collection should encompass measurement of economic activity
conducted in locations outside of traditional, fixed employment locations
reached by the traditional home-to-work commute. These other locations include
homes, vehicles, and variable customer locations. Many of the relevant issues
are described by Pratt (1987).
Federal data collection also needs to focus on travel behavior outside of
commuting, which accounts for a majority of trips, energy consumption, and
emissions. Of special interest are the specific trip purposes and destinations
included in "other family and personal business," the third largest and the
fastest growing trip category identified in the Nationwide Personal
Transportation Survey (NPTS).
Federal data collection should be directed toward measurement of NII usage
volumes at a level of detail that would aid in understanding transportation
impacts. For example, there could be better measurement of telecommunications
data and video traffic across both public and private networks. Also, policy
development would be aided by measurements of telecommunications usage that
impacts transportation directly, such as the volume of cellular telephone calls
from automobiles.
The Federal government should also take steps to measure access to and usage of
telecommunications services by households, firms, and schools with the
objective of collecting data that illuminate whether some groups have become
excluded from basic opportunities provided by telecommunications access for
earning a living, educational attainment, and civic participation.
The Federal government should support policy-focused research on the social and
economic consequences (including unintended ones), opportunities, and costs
resulting from telecommunications-stimulated flexibility in the use of time and
space. Particular transportation issues that are not well understood and that
would yield to focused research include
- The determinants and dynamics of patterns of activity, land use, and
travel in the new just-in-time economic paradigm.
- Costs and benefits of a range of public policies and private actions
available for responding to routine peak-period traffic congestion that results
from travel demand exceeding roadway capacity.
- The role of information in travel timing and mode choice.
- The cause and extent of latent travel demand for new trips that manifests
when new road capacity is made available.
- A value assessment of personal vehicle travel based on trip purposes, to
better inform the expenditure of public resources that make travel
possible.
The Federal Communications Commission and state regulatory authorities should
continue to emphasize robust telecommunications capabilities that can continue
operations after major natural disasters, accidents, system malfunctions, and
acts of sabotage in either telecommunications or transportation systems.
Providing an alternative to disruptions in transportation is a compelling
government motivation for pursuing the National Information Infrastructure as a
transportation substitution.
Federal, state, and local government agencies should focus on investments in
the design, development, and implementation of those teleprocesses that
reengineer service delivery to meet all of the following criteria
simultaneously: agency cost savings and avoidance, customer and taxpayer
satisfaction, service delivery effectiveness and coverage, and reduced travel
generation for both customers and employees.
Government teleprocess investments should be the focus of an accompanying
research program that develops and disseminates new knowledge about critical
success factors such as data security measures, preserving personal privacy,
patterns of employee-employer interaction, sufficient bandwidth in the
telecommunications infrastructure, and user interfaces for distributed
environments.
An important source of funding for teleprocess initiatives would be redirection
from budgets that cover the planning, design, development, and construction of
government-owned and -supported public works infrastructure and buildings.
These existing budgets are now a source of powerful momentum for older,
travel-intensive modes of government operation.
Federal health care program regulations that require office visits as a
condition of payment for a physician's services should be reviewed in light of
the new tele-health model that suggests that best practice is achieved when
appropriate care is provided at the appropriate location. Best health care
practice may now require routine use of telecommunications for remote
diagnosis, consultation, or monitoring. Legal and administrative restrictions
on these practices were put in place prior to the current opportunity for
telecommunications-based restructuring of the health care delivery system. New
protections can be designed that will provide for more flexibility in the use
of telecommunications and at the same time assist the important objective of
managing health care costs.
The US Department of Labor and the US Department of Education should jointly
work on public policy changes that would accelerate the financial investments
needed in K-12 public education to respond to the trends identified in this
report. New investments, which in some cases may require budget redirections
within the present funding base, would pay for the new technology,
instructional materials, and teacher preparation that allow schools to motivate
and enable children to learn skills that better prepare them for a lifetime in
an economy that is continually restructuring itself around the National
Information Infrastructure.
These skills are outlined in the final report of the U.S. Department of Labor
Secretary's Commission on Achieving Necessary Skills (USDOL, 1992). Footnotes
in this report suggest annual investments of $300 per student for teacher
training and development activities and $1000 per student, spread over a number
of years, for hardware technology. This translates to investments of $774
million annually and a total of $43 billion in 1993 dollars for the nation's
public schools. Additional expenditures will be necessary to keep the
technology current.
Overall, these recommendations call for government leaders to shift their focus
on telecommunications and travel beyond telecommuting to the much larger set of
teleprocesses that are engendered by the National Information Infrastructure.
The NII is changing the patterns of movement and location for both
organizations and individuals in many different ways. By responding to the
full scope of these changes, public policy can guide the nation toward
obtaining more benefits at lower cost from the parallel growth of
transportation and telecommunications.
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